Nigeria’s Oil Output Falls Short of 2025 Targets as Global Market Shows Mixed Signals
Nigeria averaged 1.486 million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil output in April 2025, falling well below the government’s 2.0 mbpd target set for the year. The latest figures come from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Report published in May.
In the first quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s average crude output stood at 1.468 mbpd, only a slight improvement from 1.435 mbpd in the last quarter of 2024. Monthly production figures reveal fluctuations: February recorded 1.465 mbpd, March dipped to 1.401 mbpd, before April rebounded to 1.486 mbpd.
These production levels remain substantially below the government’s expectations, raising concerns over Nigeria’s ability to meet its budgeted oil revenue target of 21 trillion naira. The country aims to generate half of its retained revenue, 40.9 trillion naira, from oil in 2025.
Meanwhile, OPEC’s broader output under the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) averaged 40.92 mbpd in April 2025. This reflects a modest increase of 106,000 barrels per day from March, signalling ongoing coordination between OPEC and allied producers like Russia to stabilise global oil supply.
Nigeria continues to hold its position as Africa’s largest crude oil exporter despite the shortfall in production volumes. The report also highlighted a shift in Nigeria’s crude exports, with deliveries to OECD countries declining even as shipments to the United States rose. This was amid lower crude imports by the US overall, down 2% month-on-month to 5.8 mbpd in April.
Global oil demand for 2025 is forecast to grow by 1.3 mbpd year-on-year, unchanged from previous estimates. However, Brent crude prices have shown volatility, dipping below $60 per barrel in May before climbing above $65 due to easing tensions in the US-China trade war.
According to Nigeria’s Ministry of Finance, including condensates, crude oil production reached 1.737 mbpd in January and 1.672 mbpd in February 2025. These figures are higher than OPEC’s reported numbers, suggesting some discrepancy between data sources.
Despite the production challenges, Nigeria’s oil sector remains a key pillar of the economy, but the country faces a record fiscal deficit of 14.1 trillion naira against a total budget expenditure of 54.9 trillion naira. The government’s ability to narrow this gap will depend heavily on improved oil production and sustained global demand.
