Turkey plans to meet more than half of its gas needs by 2028 through boosting domestic production and importing liquefied natural gas (LNG). That shift could reduce the role of Russian and Iranian gas in Europe.
That change offers benefits to the country’s energy security. It would also help Turkey become a regional gas hub, exporting LNG to Europe. Analysts say this transition may shrink Russia’s and Iran’s last sizable market in Europe.
“Turkey has been signalling that it will take advantage of the (global) LNG abundance,” said Sohbet Karbuz of the Mediterranean Organisation for Energy and Climate. By diversifying, the country can negotiate smaller, more flexible pipeline contracts, he added.
Russia remains Turkey’s largest supplier. But its share has dropped from over 60% two decades ago to about 37% in the first half of 2025. Many European nations halted Russian gas imports after the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
Turkey’s long-term contracts with Russia to supply 22 billion cubic metres (bcm) annually via Blue Stream and TurkStream are nearing expiry. Iran’s 10 bcm contract ends next year, while Azerbaijan’s contracts (9.5 bcm total) run through 2030 and 2033.
The country will likely renew some deals, but with reduced volumes and more flexibility, analysts say. Meanwhile, state and private firms are expanding LNG import terminals. The state company TPAO is boosting local gas output.
By 2028, Turkey expects domestic production and contracted LNG imports to exceed 26 bcm per year, up from about 15 bcm now. That could cover over half its projected gas demand of ~53 bcm, reducing reliance on pipeline imports.
To support the shift, Turkey has signed LNG deals with U.S. suppliers worth $43 billion, including a 20-year agreement with Mercuria. Turkey already has an LNG import capacity of 58 bcm annually, enough to cover its full demand.
Despite these moves, Russian gas still flows at full capacity, and the Kremlin says its cooperation with Ankara remains stable. Some analysts suggest theoretically that Turkey’s state gas company BOTAS could cease Russian imports within two to three years.
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