OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, recorded a smaller-than-expected increase in crude oil production in May 2025, as some member countries made voluntary output cuts to compensate for previously exceeding their quotas.
According to a new monthly report released by OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat, total production for the 22-member alliance rose by only 180,000 barrels per day, despite a much larger agreed quota increase of 411,000 barrels.
Among the eight core countries that form the backbone of the current output accord, production rose by just 154,000 barrels per day. This muted increase reflected efforts by nations such as Iraq, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates to cut back in May to make amends for earlier overproduction. However, despite these attempts at compliance, the group still collectively overshot its target by almost 400,000 barrels per day, largely due to Kazakhstan, which continued producing well above its designated limit.
Saudi Arabia, the group’s dominant player, has led efforts to enforce discipline within the alliance. In May, Riyadh raised its output by 177,000 barrels per day, bringing its daily average to 9.183 million barrels.
Iraq cut production by 49,000 barrels to reach 3.93 million barrels per day. In comparison, Kazakhstan made a modest reduction of 21,000 barrels but still produced around 1.8 million barrels per day, several hundred thousand barrels above its cap. Russia held its output flat, aligning with its promise to compensate for past excesses. Nigeria, another key member, reported daily production at 1.453 million barrels for the month.
The production shortfall comes amid broader strategic moves within the cartel. Saudi Arabia has led a campaign to accelerate output increases in a bid to recapture market share lost during years of supply curbs. According to insiders, the kingdom is also using low oil prices to pressure members who regularly breach their quotas.
While this strategy initially softened oil prices, the market has seen a reversal in recent days after Israel launched a series of airstrikes on Iran, an OPEC member. The strikes reportedly targeted some of Iran’s domestic energy infrastructure, fueling concerns about regional supply stability. In response, US crude futures surged, reaching $73 a barrel, the sharpest rise in three years.
Despite the heightened geopolitical risks, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais has stated that the organization does not see an immediate need for intervention, noting that Iran’s crude exports remain unaffected for now.
Still, tensions remain high ahead of the group’s next virtual meeting, scheduled for July 6, when further adjustments for August could be tabled. According to sources familiar with the matter, Saudi Arabia is expected to push for more aggressive hikes to stabilise the market further and regain dominance.
Although the monthly report kept its forecasts for global oil demand and non-OPEC supply largely unchanged, it noted a “mixed approach” among member states in implementing their agreed production changes. Kazakhstan’s ongoing quota breach has become a major source of friction within the alliance, undermining efforts to present a united front.
The OPEC Declaration of Cooperation, which governs the alliance’s actions, remains the central framework for managing global oil supply and price stability. However, as production data reveals growing cracks in compliance and cooperation, the months ahead may test the alliance’s unity like never before.
Read more on OPEC+ Moves Up Key Meeting Amid Price Slump, Tensions
