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Oil prices end week higher, but looming Iran supply, OPEC+ output cast shadow

Ijaseun David
3 Min Read

Oil prices ended higher on Friday, recording a second straight week of gains. Easing trade tensions between the United States and China lifted market sentiment.

However, growing expectations of increased supply from Iran and OPEC+ limited stronger upward momentum.

Brent crude rose by 88 cents, or 1.4%, to close at $65.41 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained 87 cents, or 1.4%, to settle at $62.49.

Both benchmarks notched weekly gains, Brent up 1%, WTI up 2.4%, despite having dropped more than 2% in the prior session amid speculation around a renewed Iran nuclear deal.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said the market’s cautious mood is rooted in geopolitical uncertainty. “Expected increases in OPEC+ oil production along with a more probable Iranian nuclear agreement have resurfaced the bear trade,” he said in a Reuters report. “Strong seasonal travel demand will be needed in the coming months to counter the expected rises in supplies.”

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U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that Iran had “sort of” agreed to terms on a new nuclear agreement. Still, sources close to the negotiations warned that key issues remain unresolved. A finalized deal could lift sanctions and bring back 400,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil to global markets, ING analysts noted.

Markets also found support from a breakthrough in trade talks. The U.S. and China—the world’s two largest oil consumers—agreed to a 90-day pause on their long-standing trade war. This development calmed fears of a severe impact on global economic growth and oil demand.

Yet analysts at BMI, a Fitch Solutions unit, cautioned that optimism may be short-lived.

“The uncertainty on longer-term trade policy will limit price upside,” BMI noted in a research report.

Meanwhile, Middle East tensions continued. Israeli forces struck Yemen’s Red Sea ports of Hodeidah and Salif, escalating efforts to target Houthi military assets. And Russia and Ukraine failed to reach a ceasefire in their first direct talks in over three years, prolonging geopolitical uncertainty.

On the U.S. domestic front, oil rigs—a proxy for future output—fell by one to 473, the lowest count since January, according to energy services firm Baker Hughes.

Despite macro tailwinds, the broader market sentiment was cautious. The U.S. dollar extended gains for a fourth consecutive week, supported by rising import prices and subdued consumer sentiment, adding another layer of complexity to oil pricing.

U.S. equities ended the week on a high note. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.77%, the S&P 500 climbed 0.7%, and the Nasdaq added 0.5%, driven by investor optimism over trade and corporate earnings.

Read also Nigeria’s April Oil Output Hits 1.486mbpd, Below 2mbpd Govt Target

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Ijaseun David is a multimedia journalist with a decade of experience. He covers energy, oil and gas, the environment, climate, and automobiles, reporting on policy, industry trends, and sustainability issues. His work helps readers stay informed about the key developments in these sectors.
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