Nigeria ended 2025 with average crude oil output of 1.5 million barrels per day, missing the government’s 2 million bpd target by 500,000 barrels daily, according to Vanguard and data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
Active Rigs and Rising Production
At the close of 2025, Nigeria had 40 active drilling rigs, up from 31 in January. However, OPEC reported only 18 active rigs in November, highlighting discrepancies in national and international reporting. Despite this, daily production briefly surged to 1.6 million bpd in November, NNPC said.
NNPC’s Growth Roadmap
The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) plans to increase crude output to 2 million bpd within two years and reach 3 million bpd by 2030, the company’s executive vice president for upstream, Udy Ntia, stated in November 2025.
Licensing Rounds and Big Oil Support
In late 2025, Nigeria held a licensing round for 50 oil and gas blocks, expected to attract $10 billion in investment over the next decade and add 400,000 barrels daily to national output. Global majors are also expanding: Shell plans to start production at the Bonga North deepwater field, while TotalEnergies targets gas production at the Ubeta field in 2027.
Economic and Policy Implications
The gap between targets and actual output highlights challenges in infrastructure, governance, and policy execution. Analysts say reforms under President Bola Tinubu have increased investment flows, yet Nigeria must address operational efficiency to fully capitalize on the upstream sector.
Outlook
With new investments and international support, Nigeria’s oil industry shows signs of revival. But hitting long-term production goals depends on consistent policy implementation, investment in rigs and technology, and careful management of resources.
Read also: Tinubu seeks Senate approval for new boards of oil, gas regulators
