One year after its expansion, Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline is reshaping global oil flows, with China now emerging as its top customer, data shows.
The shift signals the growing impact of U.S. trade tensions and China’s search for more stable crude supplies.
China is importing an average of 207,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX), according to ship-tracking data from Kpler — a 29-fold increase from the decade-long average of 7,000 bpd before 2023. That figure outpaces the U.S., which takes about 173,000 bpd.
The TMX, which began full operations on May 1, 2024, tripled its capacity to 890,000 bpd. The C$34 billion ($24.4 billion) government-owned project was designed to diversify Canadian oil exports by connecting Alberta’s landlocked crude to Pacific markets.
Global shifts driven by U.S. trade policy
While oil is currently exempt from U.S. tariffs, the legacy of former President Donald Trump’s trade war has driven Canada to look beyond its southern neighbour. Brief duties and threats of annexation strained Washington-Ottawa ties and prompted a push for export diversification.
“Trump’s protectionist stance made Canadian oil more attractive to Chinese refiners,” said Philippe Rheault, director at the China Institute, University of Alberta. “China is also wary of overdependence on Russia and U.S.-sanctioned suppliers like Venezuela.”
Beijing’s interest in Canadian crude is part of a broader trend. In 2024, Canadian crude exports to non-U.S. countries surged nearly 60%, reaching a record 183,000 bpd, according to Statistics Canada. Buyers now include South Korea, Japan, India, Brunei, and Taiwan.
U.S. no Longer the default market
Initial forecasts suggested TMX barrels would mostly serve West Coast U.S. refiners, but Asian markets have claimed a larger share.
“The expectation was for most of this crude to land in California,” said Skip York, chief energy strategist at Turner, Mason & Company. “Now it’s clear the growth is headed west, to Asia, especially China.”
Trans Mountain Corp reported TMX operated at 77% capacity in 2024, slightly below the projected 83%, due to higher tolls covering construction cost overruns. The pipeline is expected to reach 84% utilisation in 2025 and 92% by 2027.
Expansion on the horizon
The operator is already planning further growth. Future projects could add 200,000 to 300,000 bpd of capacity, most of which could be sent to Asia.
With China’s growing demand and its cautious stance toward U.S. sanctions and Russian dependency, experts believe Asia will remain the primary beneficiary of Canada’s pipeline pivot.
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