Venezuela’s oil production is expected to rise in the coming years, adding pressure to global crude prices over the long term, according to oil analysts, even as U.S. sanctions remain in place.
The outlook follows a dramatic political shift after U.S. forces seized Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro over the weekend. U.S. President Donald Trump said Washington would take control of the oil-producing nation, while confirming that the U.S. embargo on Venezuelan oil remains fully active.
Venezuela oil reserves and OPEC supply risk
Venezuela, a member of OPEC, holds about 17% of global oil reserves, or roughly 303 billion barrels, according to the Energy Institute. That is more than any other country, including Saudi Arabia.
The country once played a major role in global oil supply. In the 1970s, it produced as much as 3.5 million barrels per day, accounting for over 7% of global output. Production fell sharply in later decades and averaged about 1.1 million barrels per day last year, or just 1% of global supply.
JPMorgan sees gradual output recovery
Analysts at JPMorgan said Venezuela could lift production to between 1.3 and 1.4 million barrels per day within two years if a political transition takes place. Over the next decade, output could reach as much as 2.5 million barrels per day, up from about 800,000 barrels per day currently.
The bank added that these changes are not yet reflected in the oil futures curve, suggesting long-term prices may be overstated.
Goldman Sachs warns of price downside
Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc said any recovery in Venezuelan oil output would be slow and would require heavy investment.
In a scenario where Venezuela raises production to 2 million barrels per day, Goldman estimates a downside of about $4 per barrel to oil prices by 2030.
In the near term, Goldman said the outlook depends heavily on U.S. sanctions policy, noting that risks to oil prices remain “ambiguous but modest.”
Goldman kept its 2026 forecasts unchanged, with Brent crude averaging $56 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate at $52. Venezuela’s oil output in 2026 is expected to remain flat at about 900,000 barrels per day.
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