Global oil majors are expected to post modest earnings gains for the third quarter of 2025, buoyed by slightly stronger refining margins and firmer oil prices. However, analysts say the real focus is shifting toward how companies such as Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil and Chevron plan to navigate a softer 2026 outlook marked by rising debt, weaker demand, and an anticipated global oil surplus.
Profits edge higher, but still below last year
British oil major Shell and French rival TotalEnergies are forecast to report 18% and 11% increases in adjusted net income respectively compared with the second quarter, according to estimates compiled by LSEG. Both figures, however, remain below year-ago levels.
Average Brent crude prices during the third quarter declined about 13% from the same period in 2024 but were up 2% from the second quarter. Meanwhile, U.S. natural gas prices fell by roughly 12% year-on-year, reflecting sluggish demand growth despite a rise in industrial output.
Energy analysts say the slight profit rebound reflects better refining performance rather than higher oil output. “Greater focus will be placed on early 2026 outlook,” said Betty Jiang, an analyst at Barclays. “We’re watching for commentary on tariffs, debt, and how gas demand from AI data centers might reshape next year’s balance.”
Supply surplus and debt pile weigh on outlook
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects a global supply surplus of about 4 million barrels per day in 2026, warning that weak demand growth and rising output from OPEC+ members could keep prices subdued.
TotalEnergies has already signaled its intent to tighten spending and reduce exposure to volatile segments. The company’s debt soared 89% in the first half of 2025, prompting plans to cut buybacks, trim capital expenditure, and sell older hydrocarbon and power assets.
“These moves are about survival and positioning,” said an analyst at Paris-based Kepler Cheuvreux. “Investors want to see discipline, not just growth.”
U.S. majors: Operational efficiency and acquisitions
In the United States, Chevron and Exxon Mobil will report results on Friday. Chevron, which closed its $55 billion acquisition of Hess in July, is expected to post $3.4 billion in adjusted profit, or $1.71 per share, according to LSEG data.
Analysts will be looking for updates on the integration of Hess and any early performance metrics. “This quarter will likely be used to tease out answers on key topics, and to see how well the Hess integration is going,” said Biraj Borkhataria, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.
Chevron said Hess could contribute between $50 million and $150 million in adjusted earnings excluding transaction costs. The company plans to give further guidance during its November 12 investor day.
Meanwhile, Exxon Mobil is expected to benefit from stronger refining margins, which could lift earnings by as much as $700 million compared with the second quarter. Analysts at TD Cowen forecast Exxon may also reduce its $2.5 billion annual capex spending on early-stage projects during its corporate plan update in December.
BP and the wider energy landscape
BP, which reports on November 4, is projected to post a 10% drop in net profit from a year earlier, to just above $2 billion, according to LSEG data. But higher refining margins, with some banks estimating profits in the “customers and products” segment up more than 300%, are expected to cushion the decline.
The broader oil market remains volatile as geopolitical tensions, new trade tariffs, and increased OPEC+ production continue to pressure prices. Russian President Vladimir Putin last week downplayed the impact of fresh U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies, though traders say such moves add uncertainty to global supply flows.
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