Canada has recorded fewer numbers of international students and temporary foreign workers in the first half of 2025, according to new data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC).
The drop is linked to recent government policy changes aimed at reducing the number of temporary residents.
According to Immigration News Canada (INC), IRCC data shows a 28% overall drop in new arrivals through study permits and the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) during January to June 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
Significant Decrease in New Study and Work Permits
In the first half of 2024, INC cites that Canada issued 245,055 study permits and 109,310 TFWP work permits, totalling 354,365 new temporary residents. During the same period in 2025, those numbers fell to 149,860 and 105,195, respectively, totalling 255,055 new arrivals.
This indicates a 38.9% decline in study permits and a 3.8% decrease in TFWP work permits.
On a monthly average, Canada admitted 40,842 study permit holders and 18,218 TFWP permit holders in early 2024. In early 2025, those averages declined to 24,976 and 17,532, respectively.
Projections and Government Targets
If current trends continue, according to Targets’ reports, Canada could issue around 350,000 study permits and 210,390 TFWP permits by year-end. While this would mark a 20.7% decrease from 2024’s total of 706,790 permits, the projected totals still exceed the IRCC’s 2025 targets: 305,900 study permits and 82,000 TFWP permits.
The number of study permits expected for 2025 is about 14.4% higher than the government’s target, likely due to seasonal increases in the third quarter, especially in August when many students arrive. The projected number of TFWP permits is 156.6% above the target, raising concerns about whether it fits with Canada’s immigration goals.
This means that in the first half of 2025, fewer international students and temporary foreign workers came to Canada in light of new government policies directed at reducing temporary immigration.
However, despite this early drop, projections show that by the end of the year, the total number of study permits may still slightly exceed government targets due to seasonal student arrivals in August. More notably, the number of Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) permits is expected to far surpass the government’s goal, raising concerns about whether current policies are effectively controlling overall temporary resident numbers.
The composition of new temporary residents has changed. In the first half of 2024, study permit holders made up 69.2% of total new arrivals, with TFWP holders at 30.8%. By the first half of 2025, study permit holders accounted for 58.8%, and TFWP holders increased to 41.2%.
Policy Changes Affecting New Arrivals
Several IRCC policies have contributed to the decrease:
A national cap on study permits was implemented and distributed among provinces.
Financial requirements for students were raised, making Canada less accessible.
Eligibility for post-graduation work permits (PGWPs) was narrowed based on the field of study.
Changes to off-campus work rules and the closure of expedited student processing streams have added constraints.
For TFWP applicants, key changes include:
The end of the COVID-era visitor-to-work transitions.
New restrictions on intra-company transferees.
The end of flagpoling for faster permit processing.
Caps introduced for TFWP and International Mobility Program permits.
Stricter criteria for spousal open work permits.
These changes, as stated, support Canada’s 2025–2026 Immigration Levels Plan, which seeks to reduce the temporary resident share of the population from 7% to 5% by 2026.
Ongoing Implications for Canada’s Sectors
The education sector may face financial challenges due to reduced international student intake, especially in provinces like Ontario and British Columbia. At the same time, the labour market continues to absorb TFWP workers, especially in agriculture and essential services.
However, youth unemployment in Canada has surpassed 20%, drawing increased scrutiny of TFWP inflows. While fewer students may reduce future PGWP applications, the number of TFWP permits remains above targets, raising concerns over labour market impacts.
The drop in temporary residents shows that Canada is shifting its immigration approach to balance population growth with the needs of the labour market and education sector.
