Nigeria’s crude oil exports are expected to drop sharply in March, even as global oil prices rise on geopolitical tensions.
Preliminary loading programmes reported by Reuters show exports falling by about 14% to 793,000 barrels per day, down from roughly 922,000 bpd scheduled for February. The decline highlights fresh volatility in Nigeria’s oil flows at a sensitive time for government revenue and foreign exchange inflows.
Nigeria oil exports hit by offshore cutbacks
The drop is driven mainly by steep reductions in two major offshore grades. Bonga loadings are scheduled to fall to about 61,000 bpd in March, from around 139,000 bpd in February. Forcados exports are also expected to decline to roughly 266,000 bpd, down from about 344,000 bpd.
These losses outweigh modest gains in lighter grades. Bonny Light crude exports are projected to rise slightly to around 282,000 bpd, while Qua Iboe loadings are expected to increase to about 184,000 bpd.
OPEC+ production quota and structural risks
Nigeria’s oil sector continues to face long-standing challenges. Security issues, pipeline vandalism, crude theft, and infrastructure delays in the Niger Delta have often disrupted exports. Market demand also shifts between grades based on pricing and quality.
Nigeria’s crude output remains below its OPEC+ production quota of 1.5 million bpd, excluding condensates. Average production hovered around 1.45 million bpd in 2025, limiting export capacity despite government targets to raise output sharply by 2027.
Foreign exchange earnings at risk
Crude oil remains Nigeria’s largest source of foreign exchange earnings. Lower export volumes could reduce oil receipts and weaken fiscal buffers, even as global prices rise.
Oil markets have added a risk premium after U.S. threats of military action against Iran. Brent crude futures rose to about $69.34 per barrel, while Bonny Light traded near $69.
Nigeria’s March export figures may still change, as cargo schedules are often revised. But current projections underline how supply disruptions could blunt the benefits of higher oil prices.
Read also: Nigeria’s non-oil sector keeps economy afloat while oil production slips
