A growing number of US colleges and universities could face closure if they are unable to attract international and immigrant students, according to a recent report from the National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP).
The study warns that declining birth rates in the US, combined with restrictive immigration policies, are putting higher education institutions at financial and operational risk.
According to Forbes, the NFAP study, authored by economist Madeline Zavodny of the University of North Florida, projects a decline in student populations over the next decade if current immigration trends continue.
Declining US Birth Rates Threaten College Enrollment
According to the NFAP report, the US-born college-age population is expected to begin declining in 2025, due to a drop in birth rates following 2007. Without immigrants and their children, the study estimates that undergraduate enrollment could shrink by nearly 5 million students by 2037—about two-thirds of the 2022 total.
Graduate student numbers could drop by at least 1.1 million, falling to around 60% of their 2022 levels.
“US colleges and universities face a looming demographic cliff,” Zavodny stated.
She noted that international and immigrant student populations are essential for sustaining enrollment and preventing institutional closures, particularly for schools located in regions already facing population declines.
Smaller Institutions Most at Risk of Closure
The study warns that smaller and regional institutions, especially in rural areas, are most vulnerable. Larger and better-known institutions are likely to remain competitive, drawing both US and international applicants.
Zavodny explained, “Regional universities will find it particularly hard to recruit international graduate students if those students can attend larger universities that have more resources for research and lead to better job opportunities after they complete their degrees.”
The report cautions that a loss of up to one-third of undergraduate enrollment and nearly two-fifths of graduate enrollment could result in school closures, reduced academic opportunities for US students, job losses, and fewer college-educated workers in the broader labour market.
Financial Strain Already Evident in US Colleges
Reports inform that many institutions are already experiencing financial stress. According to The Washington Times, 2023 marked the sharpest annual decline in public college tuition revenue since 1980. As a result, schools have been cutting programs and positions. For example, West Virginia University eliminated 28 academic programs and 143 faculty positions in 2023.
This trend reveals enrollment and revenue declines that began after a 2010–2011 peak. Schools relying on tuition from both domestic and international students are finding it harder to close budget gaps. Colleges without strong brand recognition or significant endowments face particular financial strain.
Policy Decisions Will Shape the Future of Higher Education
The NFAP report points out the need for immigration policies that support international student enrollment and post-graduate employment opportunities. Programs like Optional Practical Training (OPT) and STEM OPT provide a pathway for international students to gain work experience in the US, which is also valued by employers.
However, recent policy changes may threaten these options. The Trump administration, according to Forbes, has proposed rules that would limit or eliminate OPT and make it more difficult to secure H-1B work visas. A proposed rule would also require international students to obtain extensions if they remain beyond a fixed period, replacing the current duration-of-status model.
In 2025, immigration enforcement actions also affected student visa holders. The State Department reportedly directed students to leave the country over minor violations. Legal challenges temporarily blocked those deportations.
Zavodny stated that US universities depend not only on students who come from abroad but also on the children of immigrants already in the US. These second-generation students make up roughly one-quarter of undergraduates and about one in seven graduate students.
International Students Help Subsidise US Education Costs
The NFAP report reveals that foreign-born students often pay full tuition, helping to subsidise costs for American-born students. Restrictive immigration policies could, therefore, harm the very Americans they aim to protect by reducing educational opportunities and weakening local economies connected to higher education.
While the debate goes on concerning the future of immigration, Zavodny and the NFAP argue that the sustainability of the US higher education system may depend on whether international students and immigrant families are welcomed or excluded.
