Oil prices gained 1% on Monday after OPEC+ announced a smaller production increase than markets expected.
The move eased fears of a supply surge but left investors watching weak demand signals that could limit gains later this year.
Brent crude climbed 67 cents, or 1%, to $65.20 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate rose 66 cents to $61.54.
The 23-member OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in November, matching October’s modest hike. Analysts said the group’s caution reflects its effort to stabilize oil markets after weeks of price drops.
“This smaller hike shows OPEC+ is trying to calm markets without flooding them,” said independent energy analyst Tina Teng. “It’s a careful balance between protecting prices and avoiding supply shocks.”
Before the meeting, sources said Russia supported a limited hike to keep prices firm, while Saudi Arabia pushed for a larger one to regain market share faster.
Still, analysts warn that seasonal refinery maintenance and softer fuel demand could keep prices from climbing much higher.
“Refinery shutdowns in the Middle East will leave more crude for export, likely weighing on prices,” said Sentosa Shipbrokers in a client note.
“The market is entering an oversupply phase as winter approaches,” added Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova.
Experts also see a global demand slowdown through the fourth quarter, driven by weaker industrial activity and limited travel growth. Despite OPEC+’s restraint, the market remains cautious.
“Without stronger demand, any price jump will be short-lived,” said BMI Research.
For consumers, the modest rise may offer brief relief at pumps, but it also underscores how fragile the global oil balance remains — caught between producer caution and slowing demand.
Read also: Nigeria’s NNPC, Dangote Refinery sign new two-year crude oil supply deal
