India’s diesel exports to Europe surged to a record in September as refiners cashed in on strong profits during Europe’s refinery maintenance season, shiptracking data and trade sources showed.
Exports bound for Europe reached 1.3 to 1.4 million metric tons (9.7–10.4 million barrels), according to data from LSEG, Kpler, and two trade sources. This is the highest level since records began in 2017.
Overall, diesel shipments from India reached a five-year high of nearly 3 million tons last month, according to Kpler data. The jump came as wide east-west diesel spreads averaged $45 per ton in September, up from less than $30 in August, luring cargoes westward.
“European buyers are relying more on Indian supplies while local refineries undergo maintenance,” one European trader said. “India has become a vital swing supplier.”
Europe’s tight supply, India’s opportunity
European refineries had about 550,000–600,000 barrels per day of crude processing offline in October, compared with around 400,000 bpd in September, traders said.
Meanwhile, shipping costs fell by about $10 per ton, making exports more profitable. The cost to send 90,000 tons of diesel from India to Europe dropped to $3.25–3.5 million in late September from $4–4.2 million earlier that month.
However, the rise in exports left Asia tighter, with 10-ppm sulphur gasoil premiums climbing to $1.50 per barrel, their highest in two months.
Short-term boost, long-term doubts
Analysts warn the surge may not last. “India’s transport fuel exports are likely to dip in October as local demand rises during Diwali,” said Ivan Mathews, head of APAC analysis at Vortexa.
Still, higher margins could keep exports attractive. “Product cracks are stronger than last year, so refiners may run harder and keep selling abroad,” Mathews added.
Looking ahead, traders are cautious. The European Union’s 18th sanctions package, banning refined products derived from Russian oil, could reshape trade flows, with Middle East barrels poised to fill any gaps.
“India’s exports are crucial today, but Europe can quickly pivot to other suppliers if sanctions change the rules,” one trade source noted.
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