Investment in Norway’s crucial oil and gas sector is poised to achieve an unprecedented peak this year, primarily fuelled by heightened spending on currently operational fields, according to the latest quarterly survey of company investment intentions released by Statistics Norway on Tuesday.
The survey indicates that total investment in Norway’s oil and gas activities, encompassing pipeline transport, is projected to reach approximately £20.8 billion ($26.6 billion or 269 billion Norwegian crowns) in 2025. This figure represents a 6% increase compared to forecasts from the previous quarter.
The upward revision for 2025 is largely attributable to increased estimates within the category of fields already in production.
Statistics Norway stated.
Nevertheless, this surge in investment is anticipated to be the high-water mark, with a moderate decline expected to commence from 2026. Current projections for 2026 place investment at around £16.0 billion ($20.5 billion or 207 billion crowns), a decrease of 4.3% from the anticipated levels for 2025, the statistics office reported.
Statistics Norway highlighted that a significant uptick in investment during 2023 and 2024 was spurred by the Norwegian government’s 2020 oil tax incentives. These measures encouraged operators to submit plans for development and operation (PDOs) for a number of new fields.
Furthermore, inflationary pressures and escalating costs within the supply chain have also contributed to the inflated value of investments over the past two years.
Given the “very few new developments [that] have occurred since 2022,” a modest downturn in field development investment this year is unsurprising, noted the statistics office. However, this reduction is being counterbalanced by expectations of exceptionally strong planned investment in operational fields.
Authorities in Western Europe’s leading oil and gas producing nation have consistently emphasised in recent years that sustained exploration activities and fresh discoveries will be vital to mitigating the anticipated decline in Norway’s oil and gas output in the 2030s.
The Norwegian Offshore Directorate, in its annual report published in April, projected a gradual decrease in production from the Norwegian Continental Shelf in the forthcoming years.
“However,” the regulator remarked, “the extent of this decline will hinge on the volume of new resources unearthed and the proportion of discovered resources that are subsequently developed and brought into production.”
